Alta tensione a Pyongyang

diRedazione

di Mario Lombardo

Le tensioni nella penisola di Corea hanno fatto registrare nella giornata di mercoledì un’ulteriore escalation in seguito alle ultime minacce lanciate a Seoul dal regime stalinista di Pyongyang che, almeno a parole, sembra essere pronto a scatenare un nuovo conflitto 60 anni dopo la fine delle ostilità tra i due paesi vicini.

Poco prima di mezzogiorno, infatti, le autorità della Corea del Nord hanno comunicato a quelle del Sud l’interruzione della linea di comunicazione militare diretta che viene normalmente utilizzata per notificare a Pyongyang il movimento di persone e veicoli diretti al complesso industriale di Kaesong che i due governi gestiscono congiuntamente oltre il confine settentrionale.

Secondo quanto riportato dal comunicato dell’agenzia di stampa ufficiale nordcoreana, KCNA, il comando supremo dell’esercito popolare coreano ha affermato che “in una situazione nella quale la guerra può scoppiare in qualsiasi momento, non serve mantenere una linea di comunicazione militare tra nord e sud”.

La decisione sarebbe dovuta “alle azioni irresponsabili dei nemici”, verosimilmente in riferimento alle esercitazioni in corso da giorni tra la Corea del Sud e gli Stati Uniti. A scatenare le ire della Corea del Nord erano state anche le nuove sanzioni approvate recentemente dall’ONU in seguito al terzo test nucleare condotto dal regime nel mese di febbraio.

L’ultima iniziativa nordcoreana fa seguito ad altre già adottate in queste settimane dal regime guidato da Kim Jong-un. Lo scorso 11 marzo, ad esempio, la Corea del Nord aveva disconnesso unilateralmente una linea di comunicazione della Croce Rossa, mentre a inizio mese era stato dichiarato ufficialmente nullo l’armistizio siglato nel 1953.

Un paio di giorni fa, infine, i vertici dell’esercito avevano annunciato minacciosamente il passaggio alla modalità di combattimento delle proprie unità missilistiche e di artiglieria, teoricamente pronte a lanciare attacchi contro le basi statunitensi situate sulla costa americana del Pacifico, alle Hawaii e sull’isola di Guam.

Nonostante l’annuncio di mercoledì, confermato dai tentativi andati a vuoto di contattare il Nord da parte di Seoul, la zona industriale di Kaesong sembra per il momento proseguire normalmente la propria attività. Questo complesso, dove più di cento aziende sudcoreane approfittano della manodopera a bassissimo costo di oltre 50 mila nordcoreani, rappresenta d’altra parte un’importante fonte di entrate per Pyongyang, stimate attorno a 2 miliardi di dollari all’anno ottenuti dalle esportazioni di manufatti verso il vicino meridionale.

Secondo la maggior parte degli osservatori, in ogni caso, la retorica di Pyongyang non rifletterebbe realmente la volontà da parte del regime di innescare un conflitto che avrebbe con ogni probabilità conseguenze rovinose per la Corea del Nord. Quest’ultima, inoltre, non sembra possedere le capacità tecniche per raggiungere il territorio americano con testate nucleari.

Piuttosto, le minacce di “distruggere l’imperialismo americano” o di “annientare la Corea del Sud” nasconderebbero più che altro il tentativo disperato di trovare una soluzione diplomatica alla crisi che coinvolge uno dei paesi più isolati del pianeta.

In un’intervista rilasciata mercoledì all’agenzia di stampa sudcoreana Yonhap, l’esperto di relazioni tra Nord e Sud, Chang Yong-seok, ha così spiegato che Pyongyang starebbe volutamente alzando il livello delle tensioni nella penisola, in modo che la concreta possibilità di una guerra spinga gli Stati Uniti a cercare un accordo pacifico per la risoluzione della crisi.

Questa interpretazione, a ben vedere, mette anche in evidenza come la politica aggressiva di Washington nei confronti della Corea del Nord, così come le pressioni sulla Cina per spingere il proprio alleato a desistere dalle continue provocazioni e dalla creazione di un arsenale nucleare, si riveli del tutto controproducente ai fini di un esito pacifico dello scontro.

Infatti, non solo Pechino non intende prendere iniziative radicali che possano destabilizzare la Corea del Nord – alleato fondamentale per contenere le aspirazioni americane in Asia nord-orientale – ma lo stesso regime della famiglia Kim considera come via d’uscita dall’impasse diplomatico unicamente un accordo con Washington.

In altre parole, come hanno scritto mercoledì sulla testata on-line Asia Times gli analisti Nadine Godehardt e David Shim, “i nordcoreani non cercano garanzie circa la loro sicurezza, riconoscimento diplomatico e normalizzazione dei rapporti commerciali dalla Cina”, poiché già ne beneficiano, “ma dagli Stati Uniti”.

I due autori hanno poi ricordato come la storia dei negoziati sul nucleare nordcoreano indichi che alcuni progressi sono stati fatti segnare solo quando USA e Corea del Nord hanno discusso direttamente, sia pure con la mediazione cinese. Ciò è accaduto a metà degli anni Novanta, quando una serie di colloqui bilaterali aveva portato alla firma di una bozza d’accordo per la sospensione del programma nucleare di Pyongyang e per la normalizzazione dei rapporti con Washington. Ancora, un decennio più tardi, i negoziati diretti tra i due paesi hanno portato al lancio dei cosiddetti “colloqui a sei” che includono anche Cina, Russia, Giappone e Corea del Sud.

Una simile svolta da parte degli Stati Uniti non appare tuttavia all’ordine del giorno, dal momento che l’amministrazione Obama continua ad utilizzare le presunte provocazioni nordcoreane per esercitare pressioni su Pechino e giustificare una cooperazione militare sempre più intensa con la Corea del Sud in funzione anti-cinese.

Non a caso, infatti, in seguito al test nucleare di Pyongyang a febbraio, il segretario alla Difesa americano, Chuck Hagel, un paio di settimane fa aveva annunciato la prossima installazione di nuove batterie anti-missili in Alaska, ufficialmente per prevenire un lancio verso il territorio USA dalla Corea del Nord ma in realtà per neutralizzare l’arsenale nucleare cinese in caso di attacco preventivo da parte statunitense.

Nel giorno in cui le tensioni nella penisola hanno toccato il punto più alto delle ultime settimane, la neo-presidente sudcoreana, Park Geun-hye, ha comunque cercato di gettare acqua sul fuoco. Nel corso di un incontro a Seoul con i ministri degli Esteri e dell’Unificazione, la conservatrice Park ha lanciato un appello per lo sviluppo di relazioni stabili che possano condurre ad una pace duratura con la Corea del Nord.

Inoltre, secondo quanto riportato sempre mercoledì dal quotidiano Korea Times, l’amministrazione Park sarebbe pronta a considerare la ripresa degli aiuti umanitari a Pyongyang, nonché l’apertura di un dialogo per stabilire una qualche cooperazione economica, senza chiedere preventivamente l’abbandono delle proprie ambizioni nucleari al regime nordcoreano.

Una tale posizione, se confermata dai fatti, rappresenterebbe un passo avanti rispetto alla posizione del predecessore di Park Geun-hye, l’ex presidente Lee Myung-bak, il quale aveva invece vincolato ogni aiuto o offerta di dialogo con il Nord allo stop del programma nucleare.

Quest’ultimo punto rimarrebbe però in cima alla lista delle richieste del nuovo governo di Seoul, rendendo quindi alquanto improbabile il raggiungimento di una soluzione pacifica della crisi in assenza, appunto, di un accordo di ampio respiro tra Pyongyang e Washington.

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